In terms of predicting the national popular vote outcome, the national polls did remarkably well in 2016. Given that in two of the last five elections the popular vote winner did not win the Electoral College (and the presidency), the distinction between national horse race polls and efforts to predict the Electoral College becomes more significant. National horse race polls predict the national horse race - the popular vote. Many people most likely assume that any poll at the national level is forecasting the Electoral College outcome, which is actually not the case. In terms of forecasting, being 'right' means two different things, depending on whether you were estimating the former or the latter. This was a complex election since Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and Donald Trump won the Electoral College.
